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"the Israelis frontloaded their retribution"
The current round of fighting between Israel and Hamas feels utterly,
totally pointless. Yet according to Hussein Ibish, a Senior Fellow at
the American Task Force on Palestine and one of the most respected
voices in on the Israel-Palestine conflict in Washington, both sides are
playing a deeper strategic game.
Israel is fighting only for appearances, says Ibish: it already
struck a major blow against Hamas when, under the pretext of searching
for kidnapped boys
it already knew were dead,
it arrested hundreds of leading Hamas operatives in the West Bank.
Meanwhile, Ibish thinks Hamas knows it can't beat Israel or extract
major concessions, and is fighting to try to pressure Egypt into giving
it a freer border and more money.
This theory came up during a conversation between myself and Ibish on
broader issues surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. What
follows is a transcript of the relevant portion of the conversation,
edited for length and clarity. And if you want to read more of Ibish's
thoughts on the Gaza conflict, check out his
new column in The National.
Zack Beauchamp: What do you think the effect of the current round of the fighting will be on the unity deal?
Hussein Ibish: That we don't know for sure. Hamas has been
desperately trying to get out of this morass that it's found itself in;
it really feels trapped and desperate. And they tried to foment trouble
in the West Bank, and it didn't succeed. They didn't get anything out of
the unity agreement, so it's falling back on what it knows sometimes
gets results — which is rocket attacks.
What they are hoping for, this time, is concessions not from Ramallah
or from Tel Aviv, but from Cairo, Egypt. I don't think that most people
understand that — it's all about Egypt.
What Hamas can get can only come from Egypt. From Israel, they're
demanding the release of prisoners that were part of the shahid squad [a
Hamas military group] that was arrested when Israel was pretending they
didn't know the teenagers were dead. Israel tracked them down and dealt
Hamas a serious blow. Which is why Netanyahu isn't so interested in
getting into an artillery/aerial exchange with Hamas — the Israelis
frontloaded their retribution. It was all done in the West Bank, before
the bodies were found.
ZB: I hadn't appreciated the degree to which the Israeli incursion before the bodies were found was effective.
HI: It was a massive, crushing blow against Hamas in the West Bank.
They got a lot of their people arrested, a lot of their cells disrupted.
They had the phone call. They already knew the kids were dead. But
how do you explain to the Israeli public — look, we already did it?
ZB: Back to Egypt. What does Hamas want from Cairo?
They're hoping to get Rafah [the border crossing between Gaza and
Egypt] open, and they're hoping to get the Egyptians to allow the
transfer of Qatari and other money, which the Egyptians have been
blocking.
In order to do that, I think they're kind of playing on Egyptian
public sympathy. Because the Egyptian government is not in any
particular mood to charge to the rescue of Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood
of Palestine. No way. However, Egyptian public opinion has been highly
affected — as has public opinion all over the world — by these terrible
images of innocent people being killed in Gaza. The context is much less
important than the fact that it's happening, and Israel is doing it.
Basically, the sole purpose of this war with Israel is to force Egypt to change its policies. That's what it's about.
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