Tallying the global cost of the US-Israel war against Iran From thousands of lives lost to an economic shock likely to plunge millions into poverty, the world is paying dearly

Among the lives lost were 120 primary schoolchildren killed on the first day of the war in Iran.

Photograph: Abbas Zakeri/Mehr News/WANA/Reuters

By Oliver Holmes, graphics by Paul Scruton

Mon 15 Jun 2026

It would be hard to find a human on Earth unaffected by the US-Israel war against Iran. Several thousand have been killed. Millions more pay are paying each day in steeper food prices or at the petrol pump, and as inflation eats away at the value of their earnings.

For many, the final bill has not yet come, but it will eventually. They will pay for the long-term damage caused by the biggest threat of all to the global economy: uncertainty.

Uncertainty is hard to measure, but one way is to look at geopolitical risk, which stalls investment and employment. The US Federal Reserve economists Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello have created an index that tracks reports of global tension. It shows the Iran war has been more destabilising than the Covid-19 pandemic, but on a par with either the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 or that of Iraq in 2003.

So how does the world tally the cost of this war? Some costs are easier to calculate than others, such as bills for surface-to-air missiles that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars each. Others are harder to quantify, including the damage caused to Iranian and Lebanese hospitals and power networks. Much cannot be valued at all – the lives lost, including the 120 primary schoolchildren in Iran killed on the first day of the war.

Then there are hypothetical costs. A senior UN aid official framed the conflict in terms of opportunity cost, noting that the $2bn (£1.5bn) a day spent on military operations could otherwise cover lifesaving aid for roughly 87 million people.

And what about the beneficiaries of this war, the oil companies and the shareholders of arms manufacturers?

Here are some ways the impact of the war has been assessed: 

READ MORE  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/15/tallying-the-global-cost-of-the-us-israel-war-against-iran

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How do armed conflicts affect us? What is the #CostOfConflicts? .... A Plea for Peace & the United Nations

 

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How do armed conflicts affect us? What is the #CostOfConflicts? 

 

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COSTS of WAR: "The “Military-Industrial Complex” is enmeshed with Silicon Valley. A growing portion of Pentagon spending goes to large tech firms..."

 

 

Costs of War

Some of the Costs of War Project’s main findings include: 

Recent Findings

• In the two years since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, the U.S. government has spent $21.7 billion on military aid to Israel.
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• The U.S. has spent an additional $9.65 – $12.07 billion on military operations in Yemen and the wider region since October 7, 2023, for a total of $31.35 – $33.77 billion and counting in U.S. spending on the post-10/7 wars.
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• As of October 3, 2025, 67,075 people in Gaza have been killed and 169,430 people injured according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. These 236,505 casualties constitute more than 10% of the pre-war population in Gaza.
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• At least 5.27 million people have fled or been forced to leave their homes (as of early September 2025) in the post-Oct.7, 2023 wars in Gaza, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the West Bank. This total includes an estimated 1.85 million children under 18.
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• Military spending produces an average of 5 jobs per $1 million. The same investment in other sectors creates more employment - nearly 13 jobs in education, 9 in healthcare, and 7-8 in infrastructure and clean energy.
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• From 2020 to 2024, private firms received $2.4 trillion in contracts from the Pentagon, approximately 54% of the department’s discretionary spending of $4.4 trillion.
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• The expanding tools of political influence used by the arms industry include extensive lobbying, millions in campaign donations, the revolving door, funding think tanks, and involvement in government advisory committees.
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• U.S.-backed Israeli military operations since Oct. 7, 2023 will lead to far higher indirect death than direct death rates.
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• Over the course of the war in Afghanistan (2001-2021), 24% of U.S. women service members and 1.9% of men experienced sexual assault.
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• The “Military-Industrial Complex” is enmeshed with Silicon Valley. A growing portion of Pentagon spending goes to large tech firms.
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• War contributes significantly to climate change: The U.S. Defense Department is one of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters.
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• Official U.S. discourses about security threats from China and Russia are characterized by threat inflation.
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• Americans are inundated with cultural products that promote militarism – many of them influenced by the Pentagon. From movies to sporting events, the entertainment we consume normalizes war, reducing reflection about U.S. policy choices and their consequences

United States Post-9/11 Wars 

• The wars have been accompanied by erosions in civil liberties and human rights at home and abroad.
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• The U.S. government is conducting counterterror activities in 78 countries.
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• An estimated 3.6-3.8 million people have died indirectly in post-9/11 war zones, bringing the total death toll to at least 4.5-4.7 million and counting.
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• At least 940,000 people have died due to direct war violence, including civilians, armed forces on all sides, contractors, journalists, and humanitarian workers.
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• U.S. policymakers scarcely considered alternatives to war in the aftermath of 9/11 or in debating the invasion of Iraq. Many of those alternatives are still available.
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• The cost of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, and elsewhere totals about $8 trillion. This does not include future interest costs on borrowing for the wars.
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• 38 million people have been displaced by the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia, and the Philippines.
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• The costs of caring for post-9/11 war vets will reach between $2.2 and $2.5 trillion by 2050 - most of which has not yet been paid.
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• Post-9/11 war veterans are suffering a mental health crisis. At least four times as many active duty personnel and war veterans of post-9/11 conflicts have died of suicide than in combat.
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• The ripple effects on the U.S. economy have also been significant, including job loss and interest rate increases.

 https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/findings

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 https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/about

The Costs of War project conducts and publishes research about the ongoing consequences of the United States post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere; the costs of global U.S. military operations; and the domestic effects of U.S. military spending.

Created in 2010 and housed at Brown University’s Thomas J. Watson Jr. School of International and Public Affairs, the Costs of War project builds on the work of over 70 scholars, experts, human rights advocates, and physicians from around the world. 

We aim to raise awareness and foster public debate by providing the fullest possible account of the human, economic, political, and environmental costs of U.S. militarism, laying the foundation for better informed U.S. foreign and domestic policies.

About Costs of War

The Costs of War project publishes public-facing research about the broad consequences of U.S. military operations and spending, including their domestic effects, and the ongoing costs of the U.S. post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and beyond.

https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/costs/economic/us-federal-budget