Ziad J. Asali: Palestinians face a dangerous U.N. clash on statehood

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/palestinians-face-a-dangerous-un-clash-on-statehood/2011/07/19/gIQAJcnhSI_story.html

Palestinians face a dangerous U.N. clash on statehood

Palestine should avoid a U.N. showdown.

Ziad J. Asali JUL 21

A potentially dangerous confrontation looms in September over the question of Palestinian statehood, one that threatens significant negative consequences for all parties. It is in the interests of all constructive actors to find a compromise that avoids such a confrontation.

Palestinians are impelled by frustration and despair about the impasse in the peace process — a frustration shared by many Israelis, Americans and others. It is, however, Palestinians who live under occupation, which gives them a justified sense that the status quo is intolerable. The diplomatic impasse created a demand for any mechanism for progress; hence the appeal of approaching the United Nations with a request for membership.

But as Palestinians started pursuing this policy, several crucial facts become clear:

First, the United States indicated unequivocally that it would veto in the Security Council a Palestinian application for U.N. membership, making such membership impossible at this time. Moreover, Congress has sent a strong message that U.N. action on Palestinian statehood would result in a cutoff of U.S. aid, and the United States is the single biggest donor to the Palestinian Authority.

Second, Palestinian hopes for securing support for U.N. membership from a unified European community have been dashed by the open opposition of some countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, and by a lack of support from nations such as Britain and France, which hold key swing votes.

Third, Israel is threatening unspecified unilateral retaliation.

Fourth, there is a significant danger of widespread outrage among Palestinians if a U.N. effort fails, with serious potential for unrest. Outrage can also be expected if a U.N. initiative succeeds but produces no improvement or even leads to deterioration in Palestinians’ living conditions.

The significant gains that Palestinians have made recently in building institutions and preparing for their state must not be put at risk. And, regardless of what happens at the United Nations, Israel must cease its policy of publicly adopting a two-state solution while undermining the realization of that outcome with counterproductive actions....READ MORE