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http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/the-arab-peace-initiative-the-last-chance-for-a-two-state-s.htmlMuasher: Obama Should Try to Solve Conflict in a 'Few Months'
By: Akiva Eldar for Al-Monitor Israel Pulse. Posted on February 21.Read in Hebrew
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| Marwan Muasher addresses the General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, Sept. 27, 2004. (photo by REUTERS/Jeff Christensen) |
The surprising regional peace plan, known as “the Saudi Initiative”,
took off at the end of 2001, a short time after the September 11th
terror attacks.
Those were three days that changed the face of the conflict in the
region. On March 27, 2002, Passover eve, a Hamas suicide bomber murdered
30 Israelis who were sitting around the Seder [ceremonial Passover
meal] table at the Park Hotel in Netanya. On the 28th, the Arab League
summit, convening in Beirut, approved the Arab Peace Initiative. On
March 29 the Sharon government decided to launch Operation Defensive
Shield, in which the IDF reconquered the towns of the West Bank.
The Arab League decision, as well as its adoption by the summit meeting of the Organization of Islamic Conference
(OIC) which took place in Tehran several months later (Iran abstained),
were relegated to the back of the news. The annual reconfirmation of
the initiative at Arab summit meetings, even after the Arab Spring, is
greeted in Israel with a yawn.
On its way to Beirut at the time, the initiative stopped off in Amman,
where it underwent upgrading and remodeling in the hands of Marwan
Muasher, who was Jordan’s foreign minister at the time. The man who
served as his country’s first ambassador to Israel,
where he made many friends, worked day and night to draft the document
with the intention of bridging between the aspirations of the
Palestinians and Israel’s security interests. Since then he has been
promoted to the position of deputy prime minister, and then went off to
far-away Washington where he served as vice president of the World Bank,
before being named as vice president of the prestigious Carnegie
Institute. But wherever he went, Muasher was haunted by frustration and
regret at the waning of the initiative, of which he was one of the
instigators.
In a special interview with Al-Monitor, Muasher stresses that
despite the upheavals in the Arab world, his approach toward the
initiative has not changed. But he warns that its failure will signal the end of the “two-state” paradigm.
To what extent (if at all) is the Arab Peace Initiative valid,
given that several leading regimes who stood at its cradle are gone?
The API cannot be considered valid forever. It has so far shown its
resilience, with no Arab country having withdrawn its support from it.
But it cannot be on the table forever. The Arab uprisings have changed
the landscape. Egypt will not pursue an active policy to promote the
API. Syria is not in a position to do so. And, most importantly, the one
Arab leader that can keep the API together, King Abdullah of Saudi
Arabia, is sick and old. The time to bring about a permanent settlement
to the conflict based on the API has come. Waiting for a better
constellation is to wait in vain. Israel’s concern that it better wait
for the dust to settle before it moves on peace because of a hostile
neighborhood will become a self-fulfilling prophecy if no movement is
made to bring about peace in a very short span of time.
Can we learn from the support of the API at the recent IOC
conference in Cairo, that the Moslem Brotherhood has decided to adopt
this approach, including normalizing relations with Israel?
“I don’t think the new Egyptian leadership will stand against the API.
No country has withdrawn its support of the API so far. The question is
not whether countries will withdraw their support, but whether they will
actively work to implement it. I doubt that Egypt will adopt a
proactive policy towards the API now.”
How do you see the linkage between the Arab Spring and the
Palestinian- Israeli conflict? Did it make the conflict more central or
rather pushed it aside?
“I see many linkages. One is what I mentioned above, in that it
highlights the urgency of a settlement now before events make it
impossible. Two, I think that the United States policy of supporting
change with the Arab world will not be seen as credible if it tells
Egyptians or Syrians or Libyans or Yemenis or Tunisians yearning for
freedom that the United States supports them but tells Palestinians
yearning for freedom that it is complicated. In other words, if the
United States wants a new relationship with the Arab world based on
support for democratic change and U.S. values, it will face a difficult
time if that support excludes Palestinians.”
If the API fails, what will be the new Arab attitude towards Israel and the Palestinian question?
“Emerging governments in Arab countries undergoing transitions will not
be as accommodating vis-à-vis Israeli policies in the West Bank and
Gaza, and will be more responsive to their streets. I do not think the
Egyptian-Israeli or Jordanian-Israeli peace treaties will be abrogated,
but the Arab world will be far more critical of Israel at both the
official and popular levels.”
It seems that the Saudis, who submitted the API to the Arab league, are losing interest in it.
“The Saudis were hugely disappointed when the API did not receive the
attention they felt it should both by the international community (U.S.,
EU) or Israel. They are also not interested in any incremental steps that in their view have only postponed a resolution of the conflict, but made it more difficult while Israel changed facts on the ground.
King Abdullah is also sick and the Saudi transition process has in many
ways already begun. Short of a very serious effort by the US
administration to convince the Saudis it is serious, not about launching
a new peace process but about moving to a resolution of the conflict,
the Saudis will not engage in another effort.”
Do you believe that the Arab regimes can do more to "sell " the API to the Israeli public?
“I believe when the API initiative was launched, there was a chance to
speak directly to the Israeli public that was not taken. I also believe
the Israeli government at that time (under Prime Minister Ariel Sharon)
was not interested in the API at all, and did not try to market it to
its own public. The current Israeli government does not even see a
peaceful settlement as a priority, let alone being interested in the
API.”
Is there a real chance to move the Israel-Palestinian
negotiations in the old bilateral mechanism, without a regional
component?
“The short answer in my view is no. Both sides have needs the other
cannot meet on their own. The Palestinians cannot resolve thorny issues
such as Jerusalem or refugees without Arab support. The Israelis will
argue they need an agreement not just with the Palestinian Authority,
but also with Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. This is the beauty of the API.
It provided both sides with the cover they need to make a settlement
not only possible, but even desirable.”
As you know, there is a group in Israel that is trying to keep the API alive. Are there similar groups in the Arab side?
“I am not aware of an active Arab group. The prevailing popular view in
the Arab world is that, just as Israelis believe, there is no partner
on the other side, and that the API has been very forthcoming in
offering Israel collective peaceful relations with the whole Arab world,
security guarantees with all Arab countries, an end to the conflict,
and an agreed solution to the refugee problem. There is a sense of
despair on the Arab side that Israel is not interested in a viable
resolution to the conflict but seeks a solution that meets its needs,
even when it talks about a “nominal” Palestinian state, but not the
needs of the Palestinians.”
How do you see the future of the Middle East, including the
situation in the West Bank, and the relationship between Israel and
Jordan?
“If there is no attempt to affect a two-state solution today, then I
see a period of no-solution for a decade or two, in which we will
witness more turmoil and bloodshed. The Palestinians, then, will opt for
the only possible recourse - asking for equal rights within the state
they live in today, i.e. Israel. All other solutions, such as Jordan’s control over the West Bank
and Egypt’s control of Gaza, or other variations of this, unilateral
disengagement or forced transfers of Palestinians, fall under wishful
thinking at best. If there is no two-state solution, the relationship between Jordan and Israel can only get worse, and will heighten Jordanians’ feelings that Israel will attempt to solve the conflict at their expense.”
What would you advise President Obama in advance of his visit to the region?
“I only have one advice. He should either indicate, in deeds not in
words, his intention to engage in a serious effort to try to solve the
conflict within few months or not say anything at all. Giving the
impression that he will start another “endless peace process” will be
met not just with skepticism, but also with scorn on the Arab side, and would be counterproductive. "
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