Preempting fragmentation
by Walid M. Sadi | Feb 12,2012 | 22:40
Many people in the Middle East entertain a certain conspiracy theory that talks about a grand design orchestrated by certain powers for the region, aiming to its balkanisation.
This is backed by the recent changes in the political landscape of the Arab world and by projections for the future.
The conspiracy theorists suggest that Israel for sure and perhaps other Western powers aim to weaken the Arab states by dividing them along sectarian or ethnic lines, and that would produce weaker ministates.
Sudan’s breaking up into two countries along religious and ethnic basis last year is offered as a living example of what can be expected to happen in other Arab countries.
Some observers point to Sudan as being only the beginning of the process of balkanisation that will be repeated elsewhere in the Arab world sooner or later.
It is being alleged that Iraq is well on its way to witnessing this phenomenon, and so is Lebanon and even Egypt, and some Arab states in North Africa and the Gulf region where sizeable minority groups of people live peacefully with the majority yet are bound to explode at a certain point in time.
While one cannot take these rumours too seriously, they cannot be ignored altogether since the threat of balkanisation of Arab countries could become real if some symptoms are ignored for long.
Israel cannot be immune from any such scenario either, since it is made up of a sizeable Arab minority that demands the right to exercise self-determination and to separate from Israel. Accordingly, if Israel is in part behind this balkanisation process, it also stands to pay a big price since its balkanisation could very well be in the pipeline as well.
That said, minority groups asking for the right to self-determination in any part of the world are unstoppable. Sooner or later large religious or ethic groups may opt to be fully separated from the motherland, as southern Sudan did, or to have territorial independence, as is the case with the Kurds in northern Iraq.
Given the fact that the Middle East is made up of a mosaic of different ethnic and religious peoples, it stands to reason that some of these large minority groups may decide to go their separate ways if and when tension and bloodshed is orchestrated between them and the majority by certain foreign forces.
This is where the real danger lies.
Some powers bent on weakening the Arab world can trigger internal conflicts based on religious or ethic grounds, and these may culminate in open armed conflicts that could develop into civil wars.
Whether these theories or conspiracies are real or not, it is incumbent on the Arab countries to be prepared for them by accelerating the democratic process and eliminating all forms of discrimination on the basis of gender, race, religion, language or origin, as the most effective way to preempt any attempt at balkanising the region.
The most effective way to prevent such a possibility lies in the hands of the Arab countries and their peoples. Frustrating any conspiracy that aims at weakening the Arab states is within reach. The sooner we all act the easier it will be to prevent such events from ever taking place.
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